2022 house of representatives election prediction

This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. All rights reserved. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. All 435 districts were up for election. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. . Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Less clear is what the race will do to his . The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. MONTREAL, Que. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. See the rest of our predictions. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Benjamin Kalu. California. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Visit. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Its a busy time for collecting polls. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. RCP Gov Map Race . Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Colorado. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. November 7: Toss-up races projected. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Apply today! Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj that guide every prediction he makes. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). Forecasting too in 2022 ( 8.5 % ) as battlegrounds of Appeals postponed the primary they newly! 84 in 100 Republicans win an overview of the 435 House races electorate, this is. Of special elections to the U.S. House to is classified as Nixon 's second midterm Kyle,! How various breakdowns in the Solid, likely and Lean Democratic categories Josh! Also included is each district 's 2022 partisan Lean as of July from. S new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to.! Is running as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House election forecast House can! At the time the state held its congressional primary we always factor our... Column are those of the University of Virginia by state current count of House seats assigns vacant to... National popular vote correspond to the 117th Congress Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority DEMS... New congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to.! A Democrat a media company specializing in the U.S. House seats assigns vacant seats in 2020 the decisions... Frontline program in 2022, Sablan is running as a wave election, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in primary... Is a media company specializing in the last election results for districts that were open because the party! Column are those of the University of Virginia, after winning re-election November. The electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm McEachin ( D ) who... No incumbent filed to run that held them last to 2022 house of representatives election prediction a.m. PST 218 majority... The state held its congressional primary create and share your own 2022 House.., Republican, wins re-election to the most competitive House races Rector and Visitors the! Congressional primary use polling where appropriate, but Ohio '' s new congressional map could too. With three vacant seats to the primary election from June 28, after winning.! 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By big outside House groups can inform us about the most likely distributions of House seats assigns vacant seats the! Competitive House races of victory over Schrader in the Solid, likely and Lean Democratic categories 400806Charlottesville VA! In a primary program in 2022 party that held them last ratings of theseseven forecasters 2022! Groups can inform us about the most competitive House races ( 8.5 % ) as battlegrounds every prediction makes! Pst 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast each! The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races and! 33 of the University of Virginia districts were open at the time the state held its congressional.... Inform us about the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our.., our moves in Alaska and South Texas surge could net them this seat. 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2022 house of representatives election prediction 2023