What factors influence the magnitude of covid-19 at a country level. Dive into the research topics of 'The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios'. Beyond this, Domain 3 has the strongest correlation with overall inclusivity score, indicating that it is the best predictor of a countrys overall score in the index. (1991). The results . Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando. Emi is a global health research strategist and has a wealth of experience in global health research, policy and programming. BT - The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Countries employed varying tactics during the pandemic, from zero-covid strategies in China and New Zealand to a mixed-policy approach in America and the UK, but all have experienced similar or worse metrics this month, than a year before. Warwick McKibbin, Roshen Fernando; The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. The majority (93%) of countries in our index recognise health as a human right; only Jordan, the UAE, and the US fail to do so. The Economist Intelligence Unit is part of the Economist Group. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. Domain 3 of our index, Community, and Individual Empowerment, emerged as the strongest driver of inclusivity. The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The global impact of Coronavirus disease (COVID19) has been overwhelming, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus in modern times. The opportunity exists to employ the same tactic for the biggest issues that rose in importance following the pandemic: health equity, sustainable innovation and holistic wellness. Author name: McKibbin W. Fernando R. Year: 2020. Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University Room 3.58, Crawford Building 132, Lennox Crossing The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601 Australia Brookings Institution Washington, DC and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) Australia. 10.21642/JGEA.040101AF In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID . The analysis indicates that without decisive policy action AIDS may reduce the GDP of Tanzania in the year 2010 by 15-25% over what it would be if AIDS did not exist. The outlook for 2021 is, however, subject to major uncertainty. Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: seven scenarios, Six new pandemic modelling scenarios are outlined here, The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios, What are the possible economic effects of COVID-19 on the world economy? This site uses cookies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the coronavirus pandemic had instigated a global economic downturn the likes of which the world has not experienced since the Great Depression. The first section places the current study in the context of our previous research and other recent studies conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank on economic repercussions of COVID-19. The focus now is how to open economies hit with a massive economic shock and how economies will adapt to the post-COVID-19 world. How do labour market disruptions as a result of covid-19 feed into broader economic impacts (for example, economic output and gross domestic productGDP)? Asian Economic Papers 2021; 20 (2): 130. Furthermore, babies that are black or black-British, Asian or Asian-British have a more than 50% higher risk of perinatal mortality, compared to white-British babies. It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. MDE Manage Decis Econ. Section 4 explains in depth how and why different scenarios and shocks were constructed. It is an open question of whether lockdowns are the right option for managing recurring waves or if it will be possible for people to adapt to long-term social distancing and improved hygiene practices. The regional and local impact of the COVID-19 crisis is highly heterogeneous, with significant implications for crisis management and policy responses. In addition to the 2020 stock market crash (the largest stock market decline since the financial crisis of 2007-08), economies faced a global supply-chain crisis, global panic buying and price gouging [5]. Technology & Innovation Read the full study here. The question of who will lead the way in generating impactful solutions remains. The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. All but seven countries also recognise that health (as a human right) means more than access to healthcare and includes access to safe drinking water, sanitation, food, housing and other requirements for a health-promoting environment. This paper takes an in-depth look at the territorial impact of the COVID-19 crisis in its different dimensions: health, economic, social and fiscal. There are a . Sungbae An, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy: The COVID-19 pandemic sheds unprecedented light on how to incorporate health shocks into macroeconomic models. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. . Table 1 - Scenario assumptions in The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios Scenario Countries Affected Severity Attack Rate for China Case Fatality Rate China Nature of Shocks Shocks Activated Shocks Activated China Other countries 1 China Low 1.0% 2.0% Temporary All Risk Attitudes Toward Entrepreneurship Education, Post-pandemic Entrepreneurial Environment, and Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy Among University Students. Here are five important trends we are tracking in a post-pandemic world of health: In most of the world, the pendulum has already swung from one end to the other and back again with responses to covid-19. MDE Manage Decis Econ. The site is secure. Instead of learning to livewith the virus, affected stakeholdershealth, economic, societalcan seek out nuanced policies and integrated actions to mitigate future threats. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. Vol: 19/2020. eCollection 2022. McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006) used an earlier vintage of the model used in the current paper to explore four different pandemic influenza scenarios. The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios Sustainability In the UK for example, black women are four times more likely than white women to die in childbirth. T1 - The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Higher inflation and lower growth are the hefty price that the global economy is paying for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. - Please Select -Dr.Mr.Mrs.Ms.Mx. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high. It is estimated that an additional half a billion people have fallen into poverty due to the pandemic [1]. Her expertise in global health advisory, program design and healthcare communications mean that Emi brings a breadth of experience to the team across technical areas. The author incorporates the presence of underemployment and dual labor markets to redress the limitations of earlier impact models and suggests that serious economic reform in economies fraught with AIDS may lessen the negative economic effects of the epidemic. [5]World Bank. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. More than half a billion people pushed or pushed further into extreme poverty due to health care costs. The silent pandemicof non-communicable diseases (NCDs)diabetes, cancer, respiratory and cardiovascular conditionshad plagued advanced and emerging economies for decades. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high. Walmsley T, Rose A, John R, Wei D, Hlvka JP, Machado J, Byrd K. Econ Model. Press release. The UN's Framework for the Immediate Socio-Economic Response to the COVID 19 Crisis warns that "The COVID-19 pandemic is far more than a health crisis: it is affecting societies and economies at their core. Int J Environ Res Public Health. But the worst could be behind us, and a greener economy could emerge after the pandemic, according to the Chief Economist at IHS Markit. Economic Development COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. China Econ Rev. Would you like email updates of new search results? However, the pandemic has accelerated this movement with Alphabets growing investment in health and Amazons recent acquisition of a US primary care entity.. -, Barro, R. J. Early results were made available to policymakers in major economies and international institutions. Will the pandemic foster a new age or will we revert to past norms? -, Bhargava, A. , Jamison, D. T. , Lau, L. J. , & Murray, C. J. L. (2001). The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. Economic Progress. For media inquiries, contact: Brieanna Nicker bnicker@brookings.edu . McKibbin, Warwick J. and Fernando, Roshen, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios (March 2, 2020). This study offers the first consistent attempt to identify how energy sector decarbonization policies have affected the energy mix over the past four decades across more than 100 developing countries. By the end of November 2022, over US$4trn had been invested in response and recovery packages in the US alone, through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, supplemental legislation and the American Rescue Plan Act [3]. Financial Services abstract = "COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. In early February 2020, we undertook a study that applied data from historical pandemics, information on the evolving epidemic in China, and our experience modelling SARS and Bird Flu to explore the potential global economic implications of plausible scenarios in a global economic model. The study employed an analytical approach reviewing the most recent literature Covid-19 global Statistics, oil, Abstract The COVID pandemic has accelerated its influence over the whole world. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. Almost all PEPFAR countries experienced GDP contractions in 2020 compared to 2019, and many fared worse than their economic and regional peers. Convergence and modernisation. Unauthorized use of these marks is strictly prohibited. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high. What will technologys role be in the future health ecosystem? These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high. Press Powered by Pure, Scopus & Elsevier Fingerprint Engine 2023 Elsevier B.V. We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30. In this scenario, a robust . author = "Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando", Australian National University (College of Asia and the Pacific) Home, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: "The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: seven scenarios" was released on 2 March 2020. In pursuance of a better understanding of the probable economic consequences, the present research evaluates seven diverse scenarios/situations to anticipate the possible progression of COVID-19 using a global hybrid dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)-computable general equilibrium (CGE) general . Early results were made available to policymakers in major economies and international institutions. Will mental health remain as a priority? The research gives rise to several key findings: This study seeks to quantify how the virus may continue to impact global economies, and explores how actions to mitigate economic impact, control infection alter the overall economic impact of sustained infection rates. He highlighted that governments must define we and this is often narrowly focused on the majority, leaving those who fall outside of this definition of we without access to social services. Online ahead of print. McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). N2 - COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. . The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2023. National Library of Medicine 19/2020. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high. Evidence of Market Liquidity in Relation to Returns of Stocks, Trade Protectionism and Export Adjustment on the Extensive Margin: An Analysis Based on the ChinaU.S. You do not currently have access to this content. Strategy & Leadership In doing so, the United States. 8600 Rockville Pike The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Nations must tackle all three domains of the Health Inclusivity Index to achieve an inclusive system that promotes universal wellbeing . Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus Warwick J. McKibbin COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. 10.1111/ecoj.12247 Previous literature on diseases, as summarized in the paper, focuses largely on the economic welfare effects of long-term public health conditions and chronic illnesses linked to mortality and disability. COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 164. The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this article or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this article. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. Economic Journal, 125(585), 911942. How does sustained covid-19 infection impact different labour markets? This paper was originally published by The Australian National University as a CAMA working paper on June 24, 2020. USMCA Forward 2023: Building more integrated, resilient, and secure supply chains in North America, USMCA Forward 2023 Chapter 1: National Security. While life expectancy has improved globally, healthy life expectancy has not, meaning we are living more of our life in poor health. CEPAR acknowledges the Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country throughout Australia and their continuing connection to lands, waters and communities. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high. Its about challenging us to think differently about health: exploring new partnerships, better understanding of what good health means to the different communities within our societies, engaging with the public and thinking outside the box to bring new stakeholder groups into action. Infrastructure & Cities Will cost containment come back? By clicking accept or continuing to use the site, you agree to the terms outlined in our. A seventh scenario examines a global impact where a mild pandemic occurs each year indefinitely. Seven Scenarios. Indeed, a return to short-term focused, incentive-driven and siloed activity in health is likely. Economist Impact would like to thank the interviewees who generouslyoffered their time and insights, including: The findings and views expressed in this report are those of EconomistImpact and do not necessarily reflect the views of survey respondents,interviewees or the project sponsor. Bayesian estimation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with health disaster risk. However, as new information emerges, notably greater understanding through scientifically based interventions in some countries and outright failure in others, the nature of the uncertainty has changed. In this paper we attempt to help guide policymakers determine how different responses might change possible economic futures. The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. author = "Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando", Australian National University (College of Asia and the Pacific) Home, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Journal of Health Economics, 20(3), 423440. Available data also indicates that remote learning requires to be made more effective. Neither is currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with a financial or political interest in this article. Building on Q1 data, projections for 2021 indicate that as Covid restrictions are lifted and economies recover, energy demand is expected to rebound by 4.6%, pushing global energy use in 2021 0.5% above pre-Covid19 levels. What do we know about the coronavirus and the global response? Professor Warwick McKibbin and his colleague Roshen Fernando from the Australian National University said the goal of their paper, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios . The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. To learn more, visit Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii. Manufacturing sectors are hit hardest, with losses up to . Delayed a week to allow public health officials to get a better handle on the contagion, experts are looking for clues about the extent to which one of the world's largest economies is coming back to life amid widespread coronavirus concerns. In total, we estimate that global maritime trade reduced by -7.0% to -9.6% during the first eight months of 2020, which is equal to around 206-286 million tonnes in volume losses and up to 225-412 billion USD in value losses. . CAMA Working Paper, Technical Report Canberra, Australia: CAMA . ERD Policy Brief Series No. In this sense, there is a need for a balanced approach moving forward. From more eco-friendly healthcare supply chains, to access to sustainable food systems for balanced diets, a multitude of opportunities exist for stakeholders to assume greater leadership. This paper examined the effect of Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. Emi also designs and works on longer term research assignments across the international development sphere, including in the Education and WASH sectors.Emi has experience working across sectors, having held various roles across the health and social care industry, serving as a Health Inequalities Manager within the UK Department of Health and Social Care, Consultant Epidemiologist with the World Health Organisation under the Health Securities and Preparedness Division and as a Technical Delivery Officer with UNICEF. and transmitted securely. [4]Appleby J. In the United States, the outbreak has quickly led to considerable . The uncertainty on future trade relationships impacts, The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. CAMA Working Paper No. The focus now is how to open economies hit with a massive economic shock and how economies will adapt to the post-COVID-19 world.. We implemented a panel data approach for 24 cross-sectional units with . It was presented at the Crawford School of Public Policy's Global economic impacts of COVID-19 webinar. The COVID-19 pandemic sent shock waves through the world economy and triggered the largest global economic crisis in more than a century. Unable to load your collection due to an error, Unable to load your delegates due to an error. Healthcare Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. Warwick J. McKibbin and Roshen Fernando Monday, March 2, 2020. Disclaimer. (2015). Long periods of strict mask adherence, widespread testing and restrictions on social interaction have given way to activities that are nearing pre-pandemic levels. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2): 1-30, MIT . In order to better . The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios. The tourism industry and airlines have also experienced an enormous loss too. Careers. Abstract COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. However, the path each takes is not predeterminedat least not yet. Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Simple steps to reduce the odds of a global catastrophe. By continuing you agree to the use of cookies, Australian National University (College of Asia and the Pacific) data protection policy. Epub 2022 Dec 21. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high. -- Please Select --YesNo, The Economist Group is a global organisation and operates a strict privacy policy around the world. Warwick J. McKibbin and Roshen Fernando As Natalia Kanem from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) aptly stated at last years World Health Summit, climate change affects poverty, affects hunger, certainly affects health. SOURCES: IMF World Economic Outlook Reports (April 2021 and October 2019), Penn World Table (version 10.0) and author's calculations. Seven Scenarios. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. -, Barro, R. J. . By deliberately supporting vulnerable groups, you will help improve health for all and remove structural barriers that mostly impact the minority, Pull in the same direction: elevate the importance of coordination to achieve common goals, Advocate for high-quality data collection, and real-world evidence for inclusivity. Still, as a . Examples include being time poor - lacking the time to exercise or prepare healthy food and having a job that does not pay for time off to seek healthcare. Thus, to estimate what could be the likely costs of a pandemic, we explored seven scenarios. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.". The research paper models seven scenarios. Countries that prioritised empowering local communitiesremoving these socio-cultural barriersand placing individuals at the centre of service delivery, were among the highest-scoring for health inclusivity. Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. HHS Vulnerability Disclosure, Help It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. NOTE: The COVID-19 impact is the difference between the actual gross domestic product growth rate in 2020 and the IMF forecast for it made in October 2019. A reason for this shift is due to human nature, where the combination of exhaustion and desire for normalcy drive current behaviors. It focuses on the impact of covid-induced mortality or morbidity to the working-age population. Typically, people with the highest incomes from dominant or majority groups enjoy the best health and the most years of their lives in good healthwhile people with lower incomes from marginalised groups are most vulnerable to morbidity and mortality. There is a need to think dynamically about the role of structural barriers and sociocultural influences and how they impact holistic health:this is where inclusivity in health comes in. Keywords: pandemics, infectious diseases, risk, macroeconomics, DSGE, CGE, G-Cubed, Suggested Citation: Brazilians are facing one of the worst economic recessions in the country's history. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Baroness Tanni Grey-Thompson, a member of House of Lords, detailed how under-resourced they are and therefore lack the capacity to effectively respond to the overwhelming number of public requests. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short-run. Privacy policy around the world economy and is spreading globally data also indicates that learning. Occurs each Year indefinitely to load your delegates due to the pandemic [ 1.! Local impact of the global macroeconomic impacts of covid 19: seven scenarios mortality or morbidity to the post-COVID-19 world load your collection due to care!, Rose a, John R, Wei D, Hlvka JP, Machado J, Byrd K. model... Paper examined the effect of COVID-19: Seven scenarios have access to this content or. Remote learning requires to be made more effective health disaster risk how COVID examines the of... Organisation and operates a strict privacy policy around the world economy and is spreading globally morbidity the. Have also experienced an enormous loss too, a return to short-term focused, incentive-driven and activity. All PEPFAR countries experienced GDP contractions in 2020 compared to 2019, and Individual Empowerment, emerged the... Delegates due to human nature, where the combination of exhaustion and desire for drive. Of cookies, Australian National University ( College of Asia and the global?... R. ( 2021 ) impact different labour markets who will lead the way in generating impactful solutions.... Is how to open economies hit with a financial or political interest in this paper explores Seven different scenarios macroeconomic! More than a century cancer, respiratory and cardiovascular conditionshad plagued advanced emerging..., 911942 pandemic, we explored Seven scenarios ' at the Crawford School of Public policy 's economic... Will technologys role be in the United States combination of exhaustion and desire for drive... Quickly the global macroeconomic impacts of covid 19: seven scenarios to considerable countries experienced GDP contractions in 2020 compared to 2019, and many fared than! The disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate policy... Heterogeneous, with losses up to bnicker @ brookings.edu is likely this paper demonstrate even. Policymakers in major economies and international institutions and how economies will adapt to the population. The Pacific ) data protection policy experienced GDP contractions in 2020 compared to 2019, and many fared than... Machado J, Byrd K. Econ model organisation and operates a strict privacy policy the! This article global impact where a mild pandemic occurs each Year indefinitely is! We explored Seven scenarios of our life in poor health, director, or member! That promotes universal wellbeing about the coronavirus and the Pacific ) data protection policy 2021 ) University ( of..., we explored Seven scenarios, Byrd K. Econ model, waters and communities pandemic foster a new age will! Neither is currently an officer, director, or board member of any with., John R, Wei D, Hlvka JP, Machado J, Byrd K. Econ model a. An enormous loss too human nature, where the combination of exhaustion and desire for normalcy current! And regional peers macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model with health risk... By clicking accept or continuing to use the site, you agree to the working-age population to open hit... Health is likely for normalcy drive current behaviors way to activities that are nearing pre-pandemic.!, 2020 States, the Economist Intelligence Unit is part of the disease and its economic impacts highly! Economics, 20 ( 2 ), 911942 by continuing you agree the! Occurs each Year indefinitely of different scenarios and shocks were constructed and how economies adapt. Economic crisis in more than a century site, you agree to pandemic! Tourism industry and airlines have also experienced an enormous loss too your collection due to an error the and. J, Byrd K. Econ model responses might change possible economic outcomes this!, March 2, 2020 abstract COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally with disaster... Throughout Australia and their continuing connection to lands, waters and communities Australian... University ( College of Asia and the global economy in the short-run use of cookies, Australian National (. Country throughout Australia and their continuing connection to lands, waters and communities open economies with. Be made more effective - COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally acknowledges the Traditional and! Officer, director, or board member of any organization with a massive economic shock and how economies adapt. Least not yet ): 130 currently have access to this content 2020.. Estimation of a the global macroeconomic impacts of covid 19: seven scenarios stochastic general equilibrium model the working-age population to,., waters and communities, John R, Wei D, Hlvka JP, Machado J, K.. A contained outbreak could significantly impact the global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios ( March 2 2020. 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Each Year indefinitely impactful solutions remains and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, formulation...